Florida Early Vote Forecaster (2026)
Early vote by party
Oct 27 · polls closed · 274,107 IPEV · Updated Oct 28, 3:06 AM
Total cast
R+0.95
R+33,482 · 3,520,552 voters
IPEV
R+8.15
R+157,737 · 1,934,499
Mail returned
D+7.83
D+124,255 · 1,586,053
Your final
R+5.00
R+369,028 · 7,380,552 voters
IPEV needed
R+9.43
for R+5.0 · ED R+10.0
Total early-vote margin by day
Click to show or hide:
Path to R+5.0 IPEV R+9.4 → early vote ends R+3.14 → final R+5.00
How the final vote adds up
| Component | Voters | Margin | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mail returned | 1,586,053 | D+7.8 | D+124,255 |
| IPEV cast | 1,934,499 | R+8.2 | R+157,737 |
| Rest of today (Oct 27) projected | 0 | Even | Even |
| Remaining mail projected | 197,000 | D+10.8 | D+21,276 |
| Remaining IPEV projected | 1,663,000 | R+9.4 | R+156,822 |
| Election Day projected | 2,000,000 | R+10.0 | R+200,000 |
| Final electorate | 7,380,552 | R+5.00 | R+369,028 |
IPEV needed by Election Day margin
| Election Day | IPEV needed | IPEV lead | Final with your IPEV |
|---|---|---|---|
| R+5.0 | R+15.44 | R+256,822 | R+3.65 |
| R+10.0 | R+9.43 | R+156,822 | R+5.00 |
| R+15.0 | R+3.42 | R+56,822 | R+6.35 |
| R+20.0 | D+2.60 | D+43,178 | R+7.71 |
| R+25.0 | D+8.61 | D+143,178 | R+9.06 |
Daily IPEV margins
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Swipe the chart or table to see all days and columns.
| Day | IPEV votes | Margin | Lead | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 19 | 171,422 | R+0.4 | R+766 | D+4.86 |
| Tue, Oct 20 | 188,595 | R+4.2 | R+7,835 | D+4.32 |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 191,248 | R+8.3 | R+15,950 | D+3.13 |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 217,418 | R+12.4 | R+26,934 | D+1.66 |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 237,630 | R+12.7 | R+30,111 | D+0.39 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 218,373 | R+6.2 | R+13,477 | D+0.07 |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 157,404 | D+0.2 | D+297 | D+0.30 |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 278,980 | R+11.2 | R+31,240 | R+0.40 |
| Tue, Oct 27 Reported · late uploads possible | 274,107 | R+11.6 Pre-day R+11.08 | R+31,790 | R+0.95 |
| Wed, Oct 28 | 311,000 | R+11.1 | R+34,562 (Σ R+34,562) | R+1.56 |
| Thu, Oct 29 | 354,000 | R+11.1 | R+39,341 (Σ R+73,904) | R+2.26 |
| Fri, Oct 30 | 387,000 | R+11.1 | R+43,009 (Σ R+116,912) | R+2.90 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | 355,000 | R+9.2 | R+32,707 (Σ R+149,619) | R+3.25 |
| Sun, Nov 1 | 256,000 | R+2.8 | R+7,202 (Σ R+156,822) | R+3.14 |
Shaded rows include projections. Pre-day is today's comparison reference.
Voting snapshot
Oct 27 · Polls closedToday's margin
R+11.60
Of all votes today
Vs. pre-day benchmark
-0.52 pts
R ahead of benchmark
Reference R+11.08
Votes today
274,107
Counted in person
Today's lead
R+31,790
Vote difference
Party share today
R 45.3% D 33.7%
Share of all votes today
By county
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Votes by party
| County | Voted | Turnout | R voters | D voters | Total | IPEV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade | 332,861 | 25.3% | 116,831 35.1% | 130,235 39.1% | D+4.0 | R+2.5 | D+12.3 |
| Broward | 270,947 | 24.8% | 58,862 21.7% | 151,790 56.0% | D+34.3 | D+29.8 | D+41.3 |
| Palm Beach | 245,665 | 27.6% | 73,423 29.9% | 116,994 47.6% | D+17.7 | D+6.4 | D+28.8 |
| Hillsborough | 221,900 | 27.0% | 78,976 35.6% | 94,869 42.8% | D+7.2 | D+2.7 | D+12.0 |
| Orange | 200,848 | 24.5% | 53,905 26.8% | 100,605 50.1% | D+23.3 | D+23.2 | D+23.3 |
| Pinellas | 182,704 | 29.8% | 69,689 38.1% | 72,443 39.7% | D+1.5 | R+7.6 | D+4.5 |
| Lee | 165,789 | 32.9% | 83,195 50.2% | 45,489 27.4% | R+22.7 | R+31.5 | R+17.1 |
| Duval | 141,811 | 21.6% | 50,299 35.5% | 69,060 48.7% | D+13.2 | D+12.8 | D+14.8 |
| Brevard | 123,485 | 27.6% | 56,694 45.9% | 41,164 33.3% | R+12.6 | R+21.2 | R+0.1 |
| Sarasota | 111,082 | 33.2% | 49,379 44.5% | 38,990 35.1% | R+9.4 | R+30.6 | D+5.9 |
| Volusia | 105,209 | 26.2% | 45,787 43.5% | 36,910 35.1% | R+8.4 | R+18.1 | D+1.9 |
| Polk | 94,469 | 20.5% | 38,318 40.6% | 38,186 40.4% | R+0.1 | R+2.6 | D+2.6 |
| Pasco | 94,446 | 23.2% | 40,399 42.8% | 32,758 34.7% | R+8.1 | R+19.1 | D+5.9 |
| Seminole | 82,313 | 24.0% | 30,026 36.5% | 33,393 40.6% | D+4.1 | R+0.6 | D+11.2 |
| Collier | 80,161 | 30.2% | 44,862 56.0% | 19,539 24.4% | R+31.6 | R+38.3 | R+25.4 |
| TotalAll 67 counties | 3,520,552 | 25.7% | 1,412,136 40.1% | 1,378,654 39.2% | R+1.0 | R+8.2 | D+7.8 |
Notes
- R+5 means Republicans outnumber Democrats by 5% of all voters, including NPA.
- Final = votes cast + remaining mail + remaining IPEV + Election Day.
- Data from acorn-maple-earth-lake.grok.me, compiled from county supervisor feeds.